How RiskPulse measures systemic market stress

RiskPulse combines rates, energy, volatility, FX carry risk, equities and credit into a 0–100 stress score. It is an early-warning framework, not a crash prediction.

Core components

Rates: US 10Y yield and bond-volatility pressure.

Energy: Brent crude as an inflation and supply-shock channel.

Volatility: VIX as a market-fear channel.

FX/carry: USD/JPY level and rapid yen strengthening.

Equities: 3-day Nasdaq and S&P 500 drawdowns.

Credit: high-yield OAS when available, plus an HYG/LQD market proxy as a live fallback.

Watch vs alert

RiskPulse can show WATCH when multiple channels are close to warning thresholds even if no crash threshold has fired. WATCH is context, not a trade signal. High-stress alerts require stronger or simultaneous confirmation.

Data safety

If a source temporarily fails, RiskPulse keeps the last known good snapshot and marks it stale instead of inventing a new value. A page visit can also trigger a background refresh, so the public site is resilient even if a scheduled job is temporarily unavailable.

Important limitation

Thresholds are heuristic and will be recalibrated as the live track record grows. RiskPulse does not provide personalized financial advice and cannot guarantee that a crash will or will not occur.